Hi, I'm Jesse

We develop a linear response framework for interpretability that treats a neural network as a Bayesian statistical mechanical system. A small, controlled perturbation of the data distribution, for example shifting the Pile toward GitHub or legal text, induces a first-order change in the posterior expectation of an observable localized on a chosen component of the network. The resulting susceptibility can be estimated efficiently with local SGLD samples and factorizes into signed, per-token contributions that serve as attribution scores. Building a set of perturbations (probes) yields a response matrix whose low-rank structure separates functional modules such as multigram and induction heads in a 3M-parameter transformer. Susceptibilities link local learning coefficients from singular learning theory with linear-response theory, and quantify how local loss landscape geometry deforms under shifts in the data distribution.

In this position paper, we argue that understanding the relation between structure in the data distribution and structure in trained models is central to AI alignment. First, we discuss how two neural networks can have equivalent performance on the training set but compute their outputs in essentially different ways and thus generalise differently. For this reason, standard testing and evaluation are insufficient for obtaining assurances of safety for widely deployed generally intelligent systems. We argue that to progress beyond evaluation to a robust mathematical science of AI alignment, we need to develop statistical foundations for an understanding of the relation between structure in the data distribution, internal structure in models, and how these structures underlie generalisation.

Modern deep neural networks display striking examples of rich internal computational structure. Uncovering principles governing the development of such structure is a priority for the science of deep learning. In this paper, we explore the transient ridge phenomenon: when transformers are trained on in-context linear regression tasks with intermediate task diversity, they initially behave like ridge regression before specializing to the tasks in their training distribution. This transition from a general solution to a specialized solution is revealed by joint trajectory principal component analysis. Further, we draw on the theory of Bayesian internal model selection to suggest a general explanation for the phenomena of transient structure in transformers, based on an evolving tradeoff between loss and complexity. We empirically validate this explanation by measuring the model complexity of our transformers as defined by the local learning coefficient.

Singular learning theory (SLT) identifies the geometry of the loss landscape as key to understanding neural networks. In this talk, I will explore applications of this framework and perspective for interpretability, alignment, and other areas of AI safety.

Jesse Hoogland and Daniel Murfet, founders of Timaeus, introduce their mathematically rigorous approach to AI safety through 'developmental interpretability' based on Singular Learning Theory.

You may have heard of singular learning theory, and its 'local learning coefficient', or LLC - but have you heard of the refined LLC? In this episode, I chat with Jesse Hoogland about his work on SLT, and using the refined LLC to find a new circuit in language models.